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Jacks, Part I

by: Lou Krieger©

No starting hand in Texas hold’em has more potential for grief than a pocket pair of jacks. Because poker is such a situationally dependent game, and “it depends” is the answer to a multitude of poker questions, pocket jacks can be thought of as the poster child for that phrase. They are a blessing and a curse, and what to do when you’re dealt a pair of jacks is not as easy as it first appears.

This is the first of a two-part series about playing pocket jacks. Today we’ll explore some of the mathematical parameters that are associated with a pair of jacks. Think of it as background information to give you an idea about the inherent strength of the hand along with the statistical chances of your pocket pair of jacks surviving its first critical challenge — the appearance of a queen, king, or ace on the flop.

Although jacks are tough enough to play in a limit cash game, a loss can only amount to a few more chips. But a pair of fishhooks is doubly-dicey in a tournament, particularly a no-limit tournament, where all your chips can be at risk.

Jacks are very dependent on the flop
Most hold’em hands are flop-dependent as well as front loaded, and jacks are no exception. Many players have an inflated opinion about just how strong pocket jacks are and it’s easy to see why. Before the flop, the only hands better than a pair of jacks are pocket aces, kings, and queens, and you’re not likely to run up against them very often. If you’re fortunate enough to be dealt a pocket pair of jacks it will probably be the best hand before the flop. But the flop can make you or break you when you have a pair of jacks.

Before examining how best to play pocket jacks in fixed-limit and no-limit cash games, as well as in tournaments, let’s look at the math first. The statistics won’t change from one situation to another, but the betting structure, the number of opponents, and whether you’re playing in a tournament or cash game will all bear on how you react to the mathematical underpinnings of this troublesome hand. Let’s dig into it.

A simulation that tests the inherent strength of a pair of jacks
I used Mike Caro’s Poker Probe to run a series of cold simulations designed to provide some information about the intrinsic strength of a pair of jacks. Then I used that information as a departure point to guide my thinking about how to best play a pair of jacks in a variety of common circumstances.

It’s important to understand that cold simulations are not real poker. Simulated players do not fold in as players would in real games. Each hand is dealt to its conclusion and the result achieved through a cold simulation is really a power rating of sorts. Think of it as a numerical index of a hand’s raw strength and potential power.

I simulated nine players at the table, and gave one of them Jh-Jc. In the first simulation (each simulation was run 500,000 times), I specified a board of Ts-6d-2c, which minimized possible straights and flushes, and did not contain an overcard to the jacks. With a situation this favorable, that pair of jacks went on to win more than 20 percent of the confrontations, while each of the other eight random hands won approximately 10 percent of the time.

Tie hands are folded into these percentages by Poker Probe, with the software allocating the entire pot for a win, half the pot for a two-way tie, one-third the pot for a three-way pot, all the way down to a nine-way tie.

But what if you’ve raised with a pair of jacks and an overcard falls? Another simulation was run in which the board was Qs-6d-2c. With an overcard on the board and the chances of a straight or flush minimized due to the distribution of suits and ranks, a pair of jacks won only 14 percent of the confrontations. The eight random hands won approximately 10.75 percent of the encounters. The pair of jacks lost some equity because of the overcard, which benefited each of the other random hands.

Nevertheless, a pair of jacks is still inherently more powerful than any of the random hands, even when an overcard flops.

In a third simulation two overcards appeared on the board and the random hands won more than eleven percent of the time, while the pair of jacks won only 9.6 percent of the encounters, making a pair of jacks a distinct underdog against a two-overcard board.

In the fourth and final simulation three overcards appeared on the board and the jacks won nearly 13 percent of the time, compared to a little less than 11 percent for the random hands. Actually, the pocket jacks didn’t really beat the random hands outright, but they did split the pot far more frequently. The message here is that a pair of jacks is only slightly stronger than random cards when three overcards flop, and if you wind up making a straight with a pocket pair of jacks, it stands a good chance of splitting the pot rather than winning it.

Simulation results
Let’s summarize these results, then put some thought to the data and see what inferences we can draw from it.

Jacks, no overcards flop: Wins 20.5 percent of the time; each of the eight other hands wins 9.9 percent of the time.

Jacks, one overcard flops: Wins 14 percent of the time; each of the eight other hands wins 10.75 percent of the time.

Jacks, two overcards flop: Wins 9.6 percent of the time; each of the eight other hands wins 11.25 percent of the time.

Jacks, three overcards flop: Wins 12.9 percent of the time; each of the eight other hands wins nearly 11 percent of the time.

A couple of caveats about these simulations:
In the real world few players will call all bets until the river without a good hand. Because each pot figures to have fewer than nine players, a pair of jacks will win a higher percentage of hands than are shown in this cold simulation. In a cold simulation each and every hand calls to the river. In a real game players dealt hands like 7-2, 9-4, J-3 are not going to call the big blind, never mind calling a raise.

Players with tempting hands, such as 9-8 or T-9 are probably going to fold if the pot is raised before it’s their turn to act. That’s why most players raise before the flop with a pocket pair of jacks. They want to eliminate as many opponents as possible thereby giving their pocket pair the best chance of winning.

Of course any hand that calls the flop increases its chances of winning too. Nevertheless, in a fixed-limit cash game that pair of jacks is probably going to be involved in the pot regardless of what transpires before the flop, while the lesser hands really amount to a changing cast of characters — probably two or three opponents most of the time — not the aggregate eight other hands that are shown in this simulation.

Jacks are very dependent on the flop — and if you gain only one strategic insight from this article, it ought to be an awareness of how very flop-dependent this hand really is — and a pair of jacks will be lucky to see a flop without an overcard.

In cold simulations all overcards are equally dangerous as far as the jacks are concerned, but it’s quite different in the real word, since most of your opponents will play many more hands with an ace in it than other big cards. Some players call all the time with A-7 and Ac-5c, but you’ll seldom see your opponents turning up hands like K-6 and Qc-5c.

The implications should be crystal clear. If you hold a pocket pair of jacks in a real poker game, be a lot more wary of a flop containing an ace than one that contains a king or a queen as its lone overcard. Better yet, if you can thin out the field with a raise before the flop, facing a one-overcard board isn’t nearly as daunting. When you’re heads-up or facing two opponents, chances that the lone overcard helped your opponents are less than they would be if you were involved in a family pot, where you can safely assume that any flop will help someone.

If you look at a flop with two or three overcards the situation is even worse than it appears from the simulated data. After all, anyone betting into a big board is likely to have part of it, and anyone calling a bet into this kind of board either has part of the flop or a draw to a big hand. While one overcard on the flop can be dangerous, two or three of them will cut your jacks off at the knees.

Now that you’re aware of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of a pair of jacks, in the next issue we’ll dive right into the tactics of playing that pocket pair in fixed limit games, no-limit cash games, and tournaments.

Lou Krieger has come a long way in the poker world. Well known as the co-author of Poker for Dummies, Lou has also written 11 best-selling books and more than 400 columns and magazine articles of poker strategy, and is the editor of Poker Player Newspaper. Catch Lou’s views, opinions and commentary on just about everything in the world of poker. Join Lou every Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on www.roundersradio.com, where he hosts the radio show, "Keep Flopping Aces."