Poker Book Author Lou Krieger

Home

Blog

Books

...bet, bet, check, and either check, bet, call, or raise on the river.

Playing the Odds

by: Lou Krieger©

We can spare you the drudgery of doing arithmetic and playing poker at the same time. If memorizing this chart is not your thing, you can always multiply your outs by two, add two to that sum, and you’ll have a rough approximation of the chance that you’ll make your hand.

With a flush draw on the turn you have nine outs. Nine times 2 equal 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20. That’s pretty close to the 19.6 percent chance you’d come up with if you worked out the answer mathematically.

This chart shows the chance of making your hand expressed as a percentage, along with the odds against it occurring with two cards to come (flop to river), as well as with one card (turn to river) remaining.

Odds and percentages are two different ways of looking at the same thing. Odds give you the bad news first and are a ratio of failures to successes. The first number is the predicted failures and the second number represents expected successes. When you say, “What are the odds,” you are really asking “What is the expected ratio of failures to successes?” If the odds against your horse winning are 7-to-2 it means that if this race were to be run nine times (7 + 2) your horse figures to win two of those races while losing seven.

A percentage in this chart represents the chances of a given hand being completed. If you flop a flush draw, you can expect to complete it either on the turn or on the river 35 times out of 100.

Odds and Outs From the Flop and the Turn to the River

Flop to the River Turn to the River

Outs Common Draws Percent (%) Odds Percent (%) Odds

20 67.5 0.48-to-1 43.5 1.30-to-1

19 65.0 0.54-to-1 41.3 1.42-to-1

18 62.4 0.60-to-1 39.1 1.56-to-1

17 59.8 0.67-to-1 37.0 1.71-to-1

16 57.0 0.75-to-1 34.8 1.88-to-1

15 Straight + Flush 54.1 0.85-to-1 32.6 2.07-to-1

14 51.2 0.95-to-1 30.4 2.29-to-1

13 48.1 1.08-to-1 28.3 2.54-to-1

12 45.0 1.22-to-1 26.1 2.83-to-1

11 41.7 1.40-to-1 23.9 3.18-to-1

10 38.4 1.60-to-1 21.7 3.60-to-1

9 Flush 35.0 1.86-to-1 19.6 4.11-to-1

8 Straight 31.5 2.17-to-1 17.4 4.75-to-1

7 27.8 2.60-to-1 15.2 5.57-to-1

6 24.1 3.15-to-1 13.0 6.67-to-1

5 20.3 3.93-to-1 10.9 8.20-to-1

4 Pair or Inside Straight Draw 16.5 5.06-to-1 8.7 10.50-to-1

3 12.5 7.00-to-1 6.5 14.33-to-1

2 8.4 10.90-to-1 4.3 22.00-to-1

1 4.3 22.26-to-1 2.2 45.00-to-1

Other Probabilities:

A wired pair flops a set nearly 12 percent of the time

A-K flops at least one ace or king 32.4 percent of the time

Two suited cards will make a flush 6.5 percent of the time

Two suited cards flops a flush 0.8 percent of the time

Two suited cards flops a four-flush 10.9 percent of the time

Two unpaired cards make a split pair 2.2 percent of the time

Here’s how you can put this to use: If you have a twenty percent chance of winning, the cost of your call should not be more than twenty percent of the pot’s total. With a thirty-two percent chance, you can call a bet up to one-third the size of the pot. If your chances of winning are only ten percent, don’t call any bet that’s more than ten percent of the pot’s size.

Hanging on to unprofitable draws for whatever reason can be a major leak in one’s game. For many it’s the sole reason they are lifelong losing players instead of lifelong winners.

There’s no real excuse for that kind of play, even if you are not mathematically inclined (and if you’re in this category, you’re in the majority). All the calculations have been worked out for you in advance. Just count or approximate the size of the pot, and the pot odds are the ratio of the size of the pot to the bet you have to call. Then compare that to the odds against making your hand. If the pot is $60 and you had to call a ten-dollar bet, the pot is offering 6-to-1 odds. If you have a flush draw, the odds against completing it are only 1.86-to-1. Since the pot odds exceed the odds against making your hand, it pays to call this bet in the long run. It’s that easy.

Lou Krieger has come a long way in the poker world. Well known as the co-author of Poker for Dummies, Lou has also written 11 best-selling books and more than 400 columns and magazine articles of poker strategy, and is the editor of Poker Player Newspaper. Catch Lou’s views, opinions and commentary on just about everything in the world of poker. Join Lou every Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on www.roundersradio.com, where he hosts the radio show, "Keep Flopping Aces."