When Intuition is Dead Wrong

by: Lou Krieger©

Whether you call it card sense or intuition, there’s more to hold’em than knowing the odds and how your opponents play. Poker intuition is like a sixth sense. But a lot of poker strategy is counterintuitive too. Like the song says, “It ain’t necessarily so.”

You often have to bet a weak hand in order to win, but you can frequently afford to check a stronger one: Most of the time you bet strong hands and fold weak ones. But not always. Suppose you raised before the flop with A-K. Three rags fell and you’ve got only one or two opponents, but no hand. What should you do? Bet. How else are you going to get anyone holding a small pair to credit you with a bigger pair and release his hand? When the turn is also a blank you bet again. Once again both of your opponents call. The river card is a king. Now you’ve got top pair and the best possible kicker.

You could come out betting, but two opponents called you on the flop and again on the turn. One of them must have something. And if that something is two pair or a set, you’ll lose two bets instead of one. But here’s counterintuitive strategy at work. You made a legitimate hand, and now you can afford to check. If everyone checks, you’ll win the showdown. If your check induces one of your adversaries to bluff, your call will snap that bluff off. This enables you to win a bet you wouldn’t have won if you came out betting and your opponents folded.

That’s the best of both worlds. You save a bet whenever an opponent holds a better hand and is planning to raise; and you earn an additional bet if your opponent bluffs in a situation where he would have folded if you were the bettor.

You don’t necessarily want to make the biggest hand: Suppose you’re holding A-J. Which of these two flops would you prefer, J-7-4 or A-7-4?

While a pair of aces is certainly bigger than jacks, consider this. With A-J you won’t be sure you have the best hand anytime an ace flops. And if the pot was raised before the flop, your doubts are magnified.

But J-7-4 yields top pair with the best possible kicker. Concerns about straights and flushes not withstanding, your only worry is a king or queen appearing on the turn or river. If an ace comes up you’ll be heavily favored with two pair.

In hold’em, you don’t necessarily want to make the best possible hand; you want to make a hand with the best possible chance of winning — and in many circumstances that means a big pair with an ace kicker rather than a pair of aces with a weaker side card.

This concept comes up quite often with straight and flushes. Suppose you’re holding 8c-7c on the button with seven active players in an unraised pot. You call and miraculously flop the nut straight when you see 6c-9s-10c hit the board. Not only have you flopped the nut straight, you also have a draw to a flush. Even a straight flush is a possibility, though it’s a long shot.

You’d be happy seeing a couple of blanks on the turn and river. Anyone else who might have flopped a flush draw will pay you off until the river, and you can expect action from anyone holding J-10, A-10, overpairs, sets, or two pair. But if a third suited card appears, you’ll be on the defensive if someone bets. While a flush beats a straight, the relative value of your hand just decreased — going from the nuts to the fifth best flush. Now you won’t be able to raise, and any call will be made with a certain amount of trepidation. Unless you get very lucky and catch the 9c for a straight flush, you’ll be on the defensive for the remainder of the hand.

If you look around, you’ll find numerous other examples of counterintuitive strategies in hold’em. Just keep your eyes open to the possibilities and take advantage of then when you can.