If you want to gamble on gambling….

by Lou on March 27, 2007

The Stanford Group, a privately held firm that provides wealth management and investment banking for institutions and emerging growth companies, issued a rather interesting report. Essentially, if you want to gamble on gambling, the Stanford Group has set the odds.

They are not optimistic that efforts to overturn the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act (UIGEA) will succeed. Their report says, “We do not believe there is the political will to overturn this legislation or to carve out poker from the prohibition. More likely would be legislation authorizing the National Institute of Science or a similar nonpartisan think tank to study whether Internet gambling could be effectively regulated and taxed. We also expect the Federal Reserve to release shortly the rules governing how banks should stem the flow of financing the Internet gambling websites.”

9-to-1 Against Lifting the Gaming Ban
There is, in the opinion of the Stanford Group, “…only a 10 percent chance that Congress lifts the gambling ban.”
The Stanford Group does not believe that legislation from the Judiciary Committee that would define poker as a game of skill will ultimately exempt it from the current law.

4-to-1 Against a Poker Carve-Out
“We believe,” their report says, “the odds are against [a poker carve out] for many of the same reasons that Congress will not overturn the broader prohibition. It leaves Democrats accused of interfering with criminal investigations and it would force them to figure out a way to overcome the ability of Senator Kyl to Stymie legislation in the Senate.”

In the Stanford Group’s opinion, a poker carve-out is given a 20 percent chance.

A gaming study by an independent think-tank is an odd-on favorite to succeed
The good news in their report is “…a 60 percent chance for studying of legislation and taxation.”

“This is the option that has the greatest chance of passing,” said the Stanford Group. It provides a means for Frank and others who opposed the prohibition to declare victory without actually overturning the prohibition. We doubt that Kyl and others would expend substantial political capital to block an 18-month to 24-month study of whether it is possible to regulate and tax Internet gambling.”

There you have it. If you want to gamble on gambling, now you know the price.

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: