Durrrr Challenge Rolls Along As Antonius Takes Smallish Lead

by Lou on April 15, 2009

The Tom “durrrr” Dwan versus Patrik Antonius challenge match is winging along right now as they played their fourth session in four days last Saturday night. After completing 11,949 of the 50,000 hand, multi-table match, Antonius holds a relatively small lead of $61,412.

Although Poker News is reporting on this match and providing card-by-card updates of the big hands, it seems to me that this match might not be decided on the big hands—where both players are all-in before the river—but on the smaller pots that are better played or better stolen by whichever player winds up winning this event.

After all, when both players find themselves all-in with hands that feature a big pair or top two pair, along with a draw to an even bigger hand, each of the competitors probably made a good decision to go all-in. In these cases, the turn of a card will decide the winner of each particular pot, and if these big, all-in confrontations even out in the long run, then the match will ultimately be won by whoever plays a better brand of small ball—snatching the antes, picking up small pots, and making the better decisions over the course of a lot of smallish hands where neither player has much of anything in support of a deep stack of chips.

I’m fascinated by the durrrr challenge, and can’t imagine how Tom Dwan really believes he has the best of it when he is laying 3-to-1 odds, and will have to beat Antonius, Benyamine, and Ivey to come out ahead—unless he thinks he will pick up so much more over the table that he can afford to win only two out of these three matches.
If he wins two of his challenge matches, he’ll pay out $1.5 million to the player who beats him while collecting $500,000 twice from the losers. That will put him $500,000 in the hole and to emerge a net winner, he’ll have to overcome this half-million dollar deficit by over-the-table wins during the course of the three events.
Stay tuned … we’ll see. I’d like to see a winner come out of each of these three challenge matches, although it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see one or more3 of these matched “settled out” at some point. What do you think?

{ 1 comment }

Mal April 25, 2009 at 10:36 am

I don’t think he has thought it through properly. Nor do I think there is any guarantee he will play all three matches.

No one has an edge like that against those three players.

I’m always surprised he has not signed up some crazy sponsorhsip deal with a site.

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