Wagering on the WSOP’s November Nine: Who Ya Got?

by Lou on November 4, 2010

With the November Nine about to play down for the 2010 World Series of Poker main event champion, and the $8.9 million first-place prize that accompanies it, many poker players and aficionados are about to get their money down on whichever of these nine finalists they think will win—or are offering what appears to be a good value bet.

You can wager on the WSOP is some Nevada sports books, or overseas, or at sports books online. Most sports books make chip leader Jonathan Duhamel the favorite, which is no surprise, since he has nearly 66 million chips.  His current price is about 5-to-2.

John Dolan, who is second in chip count with 46 million, will return about 3.75-to-1 if he wins.

Defying the odds-must-parallel-the chip-count logic is Michael “the Grinder” Mizrachi.  This well regarded pro, who has had an incredible WSOP to date, only has 14.5 million chips, yet is priced down to 5-to-1.   A wager on Mizrachi might be a popular one, and he might be the best player in the pack, but it’s definitely not a value bet.

But if too much money goes in on Mizrachi, it means value can be found elsewhere, and one place to look is John Racener with 19 million chips, who is priced at 7.5-to-1 … just like the odds against flopping a set to a wired pair.

Filippo Candio, the somewhat over-the-top Italian with 16 million chips will return 10-to-1.

You can get about 7-to-1 on Joseph Cheong and his 24 million chips, and 8-to-1 on Matt Jarvis who has 18 million chips.  If you like long shots, amateur player Soi Nguyen  has 10 million chips and will pay approximately 14-to-1 on a wager, while short stacked Jason Senti, with less than 8 million chips, will return 18-to-1.

Anyone can win it.  While Joe Cada wasn’t the short stack to start out last year’s final table, he was all-in and very short at one point, but he came back to win.  If I were betting on this event, I’d put a bet down on John Dolan, and another on John Racener.  If I wake up Tuesday morning with egg on my face, you can let me know about it here—but that’s my call, for what it’s worth.

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