Andy Beal Wins Big

by Lou on February 18, 2006

Never take predictions too close to heart. Especially mine. Earlier I posted that Andy Beal was at a severe disadvantage against the Corporation, because they can take turns playing against him, and they have the benefit of their immense, collective poker knowledge, while he is left to go it more or less alone.

So much for edges. As I write this, Beal is back in Texas some $7 million to $10 million ahead, depending on whose figures you choose to believe. At the stakes he was playing, that represents somewhere between 70 and 100 big bets. In terms I can relate to, if they were playing $20-$40, that would represents a win for Beal and a loss to the Corporation of between $2,800 and $4,000. While that seems to be a fairly big loss for a $20-40 game, it is not over the top by any means.

If you are more familiar with $4-$8 games than $20-$40, you are looking at sums ranging between $560 and $800.

But when the stakes are $50,000-$100,000, you’re looking at more money than most players will earn in a lifetime, and all those zeros seem to magnify the game’s impact dramatically.

So what happens next? Will there be another round? Quien sabe? Most of the Corporation is in California playing poker for the next couple of weeks, and after their staggering loss I imagine they will have to regroup, and see who among them is interested and willing to reinvest in order to have another go at Andy Beal. It may be that they decide against another go-round. If that’s the case, it will represent a collective opinion on their part that playing Beal offers them no edge, no positive EV. If that’s the way they see things, there’s no reason to play when the game has become a gamble at stakes like those.

I’m sure Beal would like to keep playing as long as poker is interesting to him. He seems not to like quitting when he is losing, nor when he is winning, and in my opinion, he’s good to go until he tires of poker and turns his mind to some other, more compelling challenge.

The Corporation, in my opinion, saw this match not so much as a challenge but an opportunity that provided an edge to them. If that edge is gone, there’s no reason for them to continue playing. But if they still believe they have the edge on Andy Beal, look for another round coming to a casino near you sometime in the future.

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